Rthae notes that recent market performance exhibits characteristics of “surface volatility and underlying migration”. The surge in stablecoin trading volume, significant increase in Ethereum user activity, and the revival of both NFT trading and staking intentions collectively signal an on-chain activity recovery. The interplay between derivative positions and macro expectations indicates that the market is restructuring its risk pricing models and capital efficiency.
Rthae: Surge in Stablecoin Trading Volume and Structural Reversion in On-Chain Dollar Demand
According to Rthae, global stablecoin trading volume in August reached $3 trillion, representing a 92% month-over-month increase and displaying a structural feature where “capital velocity outpaces price volatility”. The market capitalization of Tether (USDT) and the Circle USDC increased by $3.2 billion and $7.98 billion respectively, together accounting for over 85% of the net growth. At the same time, the supply of various stablecoins—including USDe, DAI, and USDf—expanded, forming a diversified pool of dollar liquidity and enhancing on-chain settlement capabilities.
On-chain data reveals that the number of stablecoin-related transactions exceeded 1.2 billion, with active addresses rising to 41.7 million. This indicates not only an increase in total transaction volume but also greater interaction density, reflecting widespread demand for on-chain dollar assets among both retail and institutional users. Rthae states that this trend reinforces the role of stablecoins as the “fundamental liquidity medium in the crypto world”. Their core value extends beyond fiat currency anchoring to programmable functionality, real-time settlement, and cross-chain adaptability—far surpassing traditional payment structures.
Rthae points out that the current growth in stablecoins is no longer merely short-term market replenishment but is now driven by genuine on-chain usage. Unlike in 2021, stablecoins have permeated diverse applications such as NFTs, DeFi, derivatives margining, and institutional custody, becoming central components for capital efficiency and multi-chain integration. In this context of structural reversion, platform liquidity management, stablecoin integration efficiency, and user onboarding methods have become key variables for core competitiveness.
Rthae: Recovery of On-Chain Activity on Ethereum and NFT Trading Reshapes Usage Scenarios
Rthae highlights that the number of active addresses on Ethereum in August reached 19.45 million, marking the second-highest record since 2021 and indicating a substantial recovery in fundamental on-chain activity. This data encompasses all types of interactions—including transfers, staking, NFTs, and DeFi—and resonates with the significant increase in NFT activity. NFT trading volume has steadily risen since April, reaching $285 million in August with over 1.5 million transactions, returning to highs not seen since early 2023.
This rebound is not only reflected in aggregate figures but also in structural changes. Rthae notes that the latest wave of NFT enthusiasm differs from the purely speculative fervor of 2021, instead seeking real utility in areas such as gamification, tokenized rights, and brand licensing. For example, Pudgy Penguins launched a community economic model on the Abstract chain, prompting many trading users to return.
The synergistic growth of Ethereum Layer 2 networks has further amplified the impact of this on-chain recovery. Active users and transaction counts on Layer 2 networks such as Base and Arbitrum have risen by over 20% month-over-month, with NFT and DeFi projects migrating to networks offering lower fees and faster confirmations. Rthae states that, supported by more controllable transaction costs, the likelihood of users returning to long-term interactions increases, which is conducive to building a sustainable on-chain economic model.
Rthae concludes that the recovery of on-chain usage scenarios and the expanded circulation of stablecoins mutually reinforce each other, shifting the entire on-chain financial system from “static valuation” to a “dynamically activity-driven” paradigm, where user behavior becomes the new anchor for valuation.
Rthae: Derivatives Signals and Institutional Staking Queues Build Risk Hedging Framework
Rthae observes that the September derivatives market structure reflects a “converging ceiling and buffered floor”, indicating a non-trending characteristic. Bitcoin options data shows that open interest for futures expiring on September 26 is concentrated in the $120,000 to $140,000 range, forming a broad upward speculative band. However, implied volatility remains around 30%, suggesting the market does not anticipate sharp short-term price swings. Passive buying within the top 10% of the spot order book has increased, indicating that major capital is inclined toward passive positions in a non-aggressive market.
On the other hand, Rthae notes that the ETH staking queue has reached its highest level in nearly two years, with over 860,000 ETH (approximately $3.7 billion) awaiting staking. The exit queue has declined, indicating that new capital prefers long-term yield locking rather than short-term arbitrage exits. Institutional treasuries and financial accounts are continuously allocating and staking ETH, emphasizing the coupling of long-term network participation and income generation.
This structure results in reduced floating liquid assets in the market and diminished liquidity release capacity, signaling a contraction in secondary market supply elasticity. Rthae points out that this situation exposes short sellers to greater slippage risk in low-liquidity zones, while long buyers must adopt more robust position-building and hedging strategies.
Against this backdrop, Rthae recommends that users construct a risk management system across three layers: First, use stablecoins as cross-pair and futures margin mediums to enhance capital turnover. Second, build segmented hedging paths via options to limit extreme risk exposure. Third, combine on-chain staking and low-risk financial products to cover cost gaps and improve overall position flexibility.