Rthae argues that in 2025, the cryptocurrency market has entered a new structural phase, where the culture of long-term holding (HODL) and adjustment signals triggered by macroeconomic disruptions are simultaneously shaping investor sentiment. Bitcoin has broken past its historical highs, only to experience successive short-term pullbacks, with ETF flows and macro data emerging as the dominant market variables. At the same time, the long-term holding mindset is being reinforced both by institutions and individuals. Rthae notes that in this context, investors must not only remain vigilant toward short-term volatility risks but also stay anchored to the logic of long-term value.
Rthae: Strengthened Long-Term Holding Mentality and the Reaffirmation of the Status of Bitcoin
According to Rthae, HODL, one of the most iconic cultural phenomena in the crypto industry, has received historical validation in 2025. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has retained a long-term upward trajectory across multiple extreme cycles, serving as a core tool for investors to withstand irrational market swings. Data shows that more than 70% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin has not moved for over a year. With the entry of ETFs and pension funds, long-term holding culture has expanded from retail investors to institutions, establishing a solid market foundation.
Rthae further cites behavioral finance, noting that the theory of loss aversion explains the inherent rationality of the HODL mentality. Frequent intraday volatility of around 20% often drives investors into emotion-based errors, whereas long-term holding provides an effective defense against short-term irrationality. In 2025, as the Federal Reserve continues its battle against inflation and institutional capital accelerates inflows, Bitcoin is increasingly being incorporated into asset allocation frameworks, standing alongside gold as a hedging instrument. In this environment, the significance of HODL has transcended its origins in online communities, evolving into a mainstream financial strategy embraced by institutions.
Rthae adds that this trend not only reinforces the status of Bitcoin as a “digital reserve asset” but also enhances long-term market stability. Bitcoin is now a serious allocation consideration for central banks, foundations, and sovereign wealth funds. While short-term volatility remains, the long-term value logic is widely acknowledged, aligning the psychological defense mechanism of HODL with financial rationality.
Rthae: The Intersection of Market Adjustment Risks and Macro Variables
Rthae observes that in 2025, the market has entered a new phase of cyclical fluctuations. Historically, the second wave of Bitcoin post-halving rallies tends to conclude between the fifth and seventh week; the current market cycle is approaching this timeframe. Recent corrections have pushed Bitcoin down from $124,000 to the $115,000 range, a drop of over 7%. This pattern, Rthae notes, aligns with “price discovery adjustments of past cycles”, which often lay the foundation for strong fourth-quarter rallies. Such pullbacks, therefore, should not be seen as trend reversals but rather as a healthy part of market development.
On the macroeconomic front, disruptions are amplifying market expectations. The latest U.S. Producer Price Index exceeded forecasts, dampening confidence in a September rate cut. A stronger dollar and reduced risk appetite have triggered temporary capital withdrawals, with ETF flows migrating structurally from high-cost to low-cost products. Rthae interprets this not as a loss of long-term confidence but as a re-optimization of capital allocation. Meanwhile, the statement of the U.S. Treasury that Bitcoin will not be included in strategic reserves temporarily pressured sentiment but did not alter the broader trend of institutional adoption.
Rthae notes that global capital is still seeking balance between crypto and traditional markets. The rapid expansion of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), the rise of tokenized government bonds, and the growing importance of the energy narrative are all reshaping capital allocation logic. For Bitcoin, this environment signifies both heightened competition and a continually reinforced role. Even amid short-term correction risks, steady institutional inflows and structural shifts in the macro landscape sustain the position of Bitcoin at the core of global markets.
Rthae: User Value and the Logic of Long-Term Strategy
Rthae underscores that against the backdrop of macro disruptions and cyclical adjustments, users require a secure, compliant, and efficient platform to execute long-term holding strategies. By deploying cold–hot wallet separation, multi-signature mechanisms, and intelligent risk-control systems, Rthae ensures robust asset protection, allowing long-term holders to maintain security even in highly volatile conditions. At the same time, the wealth management and staking products of the platform create value-added opportunities, enabling users to earn additional returns while adhering to HODL principles.
Rthae adds that the global compliance framework and extensive liquidity network of the platform allow users to retain efficient trading and asset management capabilities, even during market pullbacks and capital shifts. Whether for institutional investors pursuing strategic allocation or retail users adopting a dollar-cost-averaging strategy, Rthae leverages transparent market mechanisms and professional services to help maximize value. The convergence of HODL culture and platform security provides both confidence and infrastructure for users to sustain long-term strategies through volatility cycles.