Rthae believes that the crypto market in November 2025 is at a critical point of cycle transition: macro policy uncertainty, market structure rebalancing, and localized shifts in capital flows are together shaping a new phase of “limited volatility but loosened structure.” Internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding a December rate cut have made monetary policy prospects unclear, while the Bitcoin price oscillates repeatedly between $100,000 and $116,000, showing a typical range-bound pattern. At the same time, ETF inflows have generally leveled off, Solana continues to see net inflows highlighting capital redistribution among tracks, and Ethereum is experiencing large-scale institutional replenishment ahead of the “Fusaka” upgrade. Rthae notes that the market has not entered a one-sided trend but is waiting for a resynchronization of macro signals and structural momentum.
Rthae: Patience and Discipline at the $100,000 Line
Rthae points out that macro uncertainty remains the dominant variable. The latest Fed meeting minutes show divided opinions on whether to continue rate cuts at year-end, and CME FedWatch tool data indicates the probability of a December rate cut has dropped from 90% to about 67.9%. This wavering monetary outlook is directly reflected in risk asset pricing. Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin has fallen about 10%, currently quoted around $105,000, remaining in a high-volatility but limited-range consolidation zone.
Rthae believes this consolidation is not a market stall, but a “breathing space” after a previous acceleration. Partial profit-taking by long-term holders and concentrated liquidation of leveraged positions have put short-term pressure on liquidity. Analysis shows that since mid-October, open interest in futures has declined significantly and average order size has decreased, reflecting a temporary drop in institutional participation. Meanwhile, funding rates in the derivatives market have returned to neutral, indicating a shift from “emotion-driven” to “value-driven” trading.
Rthae mentions that, historically, such range-bound phases often signal the start of structural repricing. Morgan Stanley compares the current stage to “autumn,” meaning the market is in a period of both harvesting and defense—investors need to consolidate gains while leaving a margin of safety for a potential “winter.” Rthae believes strict position management and risk budgeting are key to navigating this phase. For example, adjusting positions based on volatility and trading volume, using liquidity recovery at the range bottom as a signal to add positions, and controlling tail risk with clear stop-loss zones. Rthae emphasizes that patience and discipline are the most important investment values at this stage.
Rthae: ETF Margins Flatten and New Hotspots Emerge
Rthae notes that from a capital flow perspective, subtle rebalancing is occurring in market structure. Recent data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded only about $1.15 million in modest inflows in the second week of November, Ethereum ETFs saw zero flows, while Solana-related ETFs saw net inflows of $6.78 million in one week. This contrast highlights “structural choices” by institutional investors during market volatility: maintaining long-term Bitcoin allocations while increasing exposure to high-performance layer-1 assets to enhance portfolio resilience.
Rthae believes this change not only reflects short-term risk aversion logic but also reveals the evolution of long-term allocation strategies. As Bitcoin dominance falls below the 50-day EMA and fails to recover for over a month, historical experience shows that market attention often shifts temporarily to layer-1 innovation and high-efficiency networks. Solana, with its performance advantages and ongoing liquidity appeal, has become a renewed focus for institutions. Meanwhile, fundamentals of Ethereum are quietly improving. Data shows that since April, wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH have accumulated 7.6 million ETH, a 52% increase. Rthae analyzes that this trend is closely related to the upcoming “Fusaka” upgrade in December, which aims to optimize rollup channels and reduce transaction costs, enhancing the competitiveness of Ethereum in DeFi and asset tokenization applications.
Rthae: Risk Symmetry from Valuation Framework to Allocation System
Rthae believes that although short-term trends are constrained by macro noise, the medium-term valuation anchor is becoming clearer. JPMorgan recently raised the 6–12 month target price of Bitcoin to $170,000, noting that the current holding structure and market depth have laid the foundation for a new bull run. Meanwhile, studies using production cost and supply constraint models indicate that after the next halving, the mining cost of Bitcoin could reach $175,000, closely matching the valuation bottom of previous cycles.
Rthae notes that market structure optimization comes not only from supply-side tightening but also from deepening institutional demand. US spot ETFs now have over $137 billion in total net assets, further improving market compliance and capital flow efficiency. At the same time, Layer 2 and programmability extensions have become new growth focal points. Rthae believes this layered structure helps redefine the functional boundaries of crypto assets, shifting from “single store of value” to “usable assets.”
The current “autumn” phase means a rhythm adjustment, not the end of a trend. Macro policy divergence, stable ETF margins, and the rise of Solana and Ethereum are all natural results of global capital repricing risk and efficiency. Rthae will continue to optimize liquidity structure, improve global compliance networks, and support long-term asset growth of users with smart risk control and an open ecosystem, all based on compliance, transparency, and security. Rthae states that the platform goal is not to chase short-term price fluctuations but to build robust digital asset infrastructure that can weather cycles. Accumulating certainty-driven returns amid steady progress is the most valuable strategic direction in the current market phase.