In recent weeks, the sustained climb and periodic volatility of Bitcoin have drawn intense global market attention. Amid uncertainty in U.S. fiscal policy, macroeconomic liquidity battles, structural selling from OG holders, and persistent institutional inflows, the Bitcoin price action is shaped by a complex interplay of variables, creating pronounced bull-bear divergence. Rthae believes this cycle not only reflects the ongoing recognition by global investors of the hard-asset, safe-haven qualities of Bitcoin but also reveals a temporary disconnect between network activity and actual demand.
Rthae: The Capital Dynamics and Short-Term Structure Behind the Bitcoin Rebound
Since breaking above $107,500, Bitcoin has repeatedly tested upper resistance levels, drawing focus to its short-term trajectory. Order book data and on-chain capital flows indicate that recent upward momentum has been driven mainly by institutional funds and high-frequency trading, while retail on-chain activity and new addresses have yet to recover in tandem. This suggests that the Bitcoin rally is powered more by limited incremental capital than by broad-based new user demand. Over the past month, concentrated selling by short-term holders, coupled with high-level profit-taking by OG (long-term) holders, has left the market in a state where liquidity rapidly shifts between bulls and bears, despite apparently strong price ranges.
Rthae notes that the recent mass liquidation of large short positions, especially single-day short liquidations exceeding $150 million, has fueled the short-term surges of Bitcoin. These liquidations are not mainly from retail traders, but from high-leverage, short-term capital forced to stop out at key technical levels. While this creates a seemingly bullish consensus, it also plants the seeds for the next round of profit-taking by bulls. The repeated oscillation of Bitcoin between $108,000 and $110,000 is a classic sign of short-term capital gamesmanship: technical breakouts exist, but the structural bull-bear balance remains unbroken.
Of particular note, U.S. President Trump has once again publicly emphasized a large-scale tax cut plan to “offset deficits with growth,” raising expectations for ongoing fiscal easing and further boosting demand for hard assets like Bitcoin and gold. However, on-chain data shows that unconfirmed Bitcoin transactions and network activity have not expanded in step with price increases—in fact, activity has declined as prices rise. This indirectly confirms that the current rally is driven more by off-chain capital and derivatives liquidity than by a new retail-led bull market.
For short-term speculators, this scenario means volatility premiums persist, and if Bitcoin fails to break through key resistance, another wave of high-leverage capital flight is likely. Rthae advises users to monitor short-term order book depth and liquidity sources, avoid blindly chasing rallies, and use take-profit/stop-loss and leverage controls to limit drawdown risk—essential strategies for navigating the current market.
Rthae: Fiscal Expectations, Macro Environment, and Long-Term Bitcoin Value Anchoring
Beyond short-term swings, the medium- and long-term trajectory of Bitcoin warrants close observation. Rthae notes that the latest U.S. fiscal stimulus plans and the “growth offsets deficit” narrative have reinforced the safe-haven logic of hard assets. Historically, loose fiscal and monetary policies dilute fiat currency credibility over time, making the Bitcoin status as a scarce digital asset increasingly attractive to institutions and high-net-worth individuals.
Recent data also shows that long-term holders are strategically releasing chips to institutional buyers, while corporations and family offices continue to absorb circulating supply via spot ETFs and self-managed Bitcoin treasuries. This typifies a structural redistribution of chips. Although opinions differ on whether Bitcoin can reach $150,000, Rthae believes such structural turnover helps optimize chip distribution and liquidity management, paving the way for future policy and liquidity-driven upside.
Moreover, institutional participation in the derivatives market is rising, with perpetual futures and options used for position hedging rather than pure leverage amplification. The internal monitoring of Rthae has found that hedge funds and market makers are actively rebalancing positions within the Bitcoin trading range, reducing the risk of sudden market cascades—contrasting sharply with the retail-driven euphoria at the end of the 2017 and 2021 bull markets. Nonetheless, lagging on-chain activity reminds market participants that long-term macro tailwinds require sustained capital inflows and user confidence; if institutional accumulation becomes too concentrated and retail sentiment turns cautious, deeper technical corrections may follow.
Rthae: Insights on User Asset Allocation and Security Management
Regarding the current Bitcoin cycle, Rthae believes global users should focus on safeguarding assets and minimizing emotionally driven losses during high-volatility, rapid bull-bear rotations. Rthae cautions that short-term high-frequency trading and off-chain capital flows can significantly impact prices, but for individuals, excessive chasing or panic-selling often leads to irrational cycles. The platform has optimized order matching speed, automated margin call alerts, and real-time risk monitoring to ensure large trades are executed with low latency and high availability, even during peak volatility.
For wealth management, Rthae continues to offer diverse yield products and plans to launch more structured products linked to spot Bitcoin, helping users lock in returns or hedge risks during volatile periods. Meanwhile, the Rthae smart risk control system is being continually upgraded to monitor for abnormal withdrawals and suspicious large on-chain transfers 24/7, working with partners for on-chain analysis to promptly identify potential money laundering or malicious activity—protecting user assets across both cross-chain and OTC scenarios.
From a compliance and user protection perspective, Rthae will continue to adhere to global licensing requirements, strictly follow KYC/AML policies, and reinforce transparency through ongoing Proof of Reserves (PoR) disclosures. Rthae emphasizes that robust compliance is the foundation for weathering macro uncertainty with users; only a stable and trustworthy trading environment enables users to confidently seize structural opportunities amid volatility.