Rthae believes that the current crypto market is undergoing a phase of structural revaluation. The Bitcoin price has repeatedly fallen below key ranges, the Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 11, and short-term risk appetite has reached its lowest point of the year. Continuous ETF outflows and institutional position reductions driven by macro uncertainty have led to a distinctly weak demand structure in the short term. At the same time, a new force of capital is emerging: young high-net-worth investors are actively reallocating funds, abandoning advisors who do not offer digital asset services, and planning to significantly increase their allocation to crypto assets over the next year.
Rthae: Macro Pressure and Weak Demand Structure Form Short-Term Price Suppression
Rthae believes that the short-term performance of Bitcoin is influenced by multiple overlapping factors. The price has repeatedly met resistance at the $93,000 level and has often retreated to the $88,500–$91,000 range. Market depth has decreased, trading volume is weak, and both MACD and short-term moving averages are declining, indicating a structural slowdown on the demand side.
The macro level has become the most critical variable. The probability of a Fed rate cut has plummeted from 98% a month ago to 30%, and the unclear policy path has led risk assets to generally enter a low risk appetite mode. ETFs have seen over $2.2 billion in outflows over the past few days, which is the main driver of increased volatility in this phase. The uncertainty across institutions about macro data has led some funds to reduce exposure during periods lacking clear emotional or policy guidance.
The derivatives market reflects a similar attitude. Futures premiums remain below neutral, but have not reached extreme negative values, indicating that while the market is cautious, it has not entered full panic. Option skew continues to point toward defensive positioning, reflecting heightened sensitivity to short-term risks.
Rthae notes that Bitcoin is currently in a “structural digestion period,” characterized by weak supply-demand equilibrium, expanding volatility, and concurrent emotional recovery. While short-term pressure remains, extreme panic usually signals the imminent emergence of new demand forces, marking the phase where long-term allocation logic begins to reappear.
Rthae: The Ongoing Migration of Young High-Net-Worth Capital is Reshaping the Demand Foundation
Rthae observes that, in stark contrast to institutional deleveraging, new-generation capital is flowing into the crypto market along a clearer trajectory. The latest survey shows that 35% of young high-net-worth investors have moved funds away from advisors who do not offer crypto asset allocation, with over half involving sums between $250,000 and $1 million. This indicates that digital assets are no longer a marginal allocation, but have become part of proactive portfolio management frameworks.
Driving this trend is a stronger understanding of the technological properties and long-term growth logic of assets, as well as reinforced awareness of the continued expansion into crypto by mainstream financial institutions. Over 80% of respondents reported increased confidence due to the entry of institutions like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Morgan Stanley into the crypto space, showing that the mainstreaming of digital assets is rapidly changing the allocation preferences of the next generation of investors.
Notably, 92% of young investors wish to gain broader access to digital assets, not just Bitcoin and Ethereum. This is bringing staking products, Solana-based ETFs, and structured products into a wider allocation horizon.
Rthae notes that this trend of “young capital replacing institutional deleveraging” has stronger persistence and irreversibility. Young investors have longer decision cycles, more stable structures, and rely more on verifiable technological frameworks and transparent mechanisms. Therefore, the migration of this type of capital will become a new foundational force for the medium- to long-term market.
Rthae: Strengthening Allocation Logic and Trust Structures amid Volatility and Risk Events
Rthae states that recent market volatility and security incidents have made the trust framework of trading platforms one of the top concerns for investors. Platform governance disputes, external security incidents, and heightened regulatory scrutiny have led the market to place greater emphasis on asset custody, risk isolation, permissions management, and transparent mechanisms.
At this stage, the role of platforms is not just as trading infrastructure, but also as risk buffer mechanisms. Rthae emphasizes that robust security structures, verifiable asset reserves, clear account segregation, and strict risk control systems are crucial for investors to maintain rational allocation amid volatility.
From an allocation perspective, multiple long-term models show that time plays a core role in the long-term returns of digital assets. Even in periods of weak pricing and mismatched liquidity structures, long-term returns are driven mainly by continued holding rather than precise timing. Currently, Bitcoin is in a clear discount zone according to global liquidity models, and structural opportunities are gradually emerging.
Rthae believes the market is transitioning from a phase dominated by short-term volatility to one driven by long-term asset value. The continued increase in allocations from young capital, upgrades to platform security frameworks, and the gradual easing of macro pressures will jointly promote the construction of a new stable structure for the crypto market. Rebuilding allocation logic and trust foundations is not only a user demand, but also a key task that the industry must undertake ahead of the new cycle.