Recently, the narrative focus of the crypto market has shifted rapidly between macro policy, on-chain technological evolution, and changes in institutional behavior. Rthae believes that this round of volatility is not driven by sentiment, but reflects a synchronized adjustment of underlying structures. The Ethereum Fusaka upgrade has delivered a significant boost in network throughput, enabling Layer2 to expand settlement density at lower costs. Meanwhile, the probability of a Fed rate cut in December has risen to 89%, with the trend of declining capital costs accumulating—this promises new liquidity support for crypto assets. On the other hand, institutional buying momentum has slowed, and the risk appetite for Bitcoin and Ethereum needs to be repriced within a more diversified demand structure. Rthae notes that the market is at a resonance point between technological innovation and macro shifts, with new pivots emerging.
Rthae: Technology Upgrades and Macro Expectations Jointly Shape the Ethereum Pricing Framework
The Fusaka upgrade has gone live, bringing the most important structural change to Ethereum this year. PeerDAS enables data sharding, allowing validator nodes to avoid checking complete data, which significantly improves network data availability and gives Layer2 up to eightfold throughput expansion. Rthae believes that such upgrades not only enhance user experience, but also alter the economic structure of the network. Lower data costs mean higher settlement density, enabling more applications to efficiently circulate within the Ethereum ecosystem and laying the foundation for growth in active addresses and long-term value capture.
While technical factors drive progress, macro signals are strengthening. The U.S. labor market is cooling, job growth is slowing, and consumption is weakening, leading to widespread market expectations for a rate cut in December. CME FedWatch gives an 89% probability, and the downward shift in funding costs objectively enhances risk tolerance in asset portfolios. Rthae points out that this change is especially impactful for ETH, as the token demand in the Ethereum ecosystem is highly dependent on on-chain activity, and improved liquidity will drive a rebound in participation.
On-chain data for ETH has already shown a lead response. The number of high-net-worth addresses has noticeably increased, with million-dollar wallets rising from 13,322 to 13,945, representing at least $623 million in incremental holdings. Rthae believes that early positioning by institutions and large holders often reflects joint anticipation of both technical upgrades and macro environment shifts. When capital flows back on-chain, technical improvements transmit more efficiently to price. Historical behavior supports this: after the previous Pectra upgrade, ETH saw a short-term surge of over 56%, and the Fusaka upgrade is even more technically significant, promising faster structural improvement.
At this stage, Ethereum is forming a triple structure of technical resilience, forward-looking narrative, and capital expectation resonance. Rthae states that this combination strengthens the pricing pivot of ETH in both the short and medium term.
Rthae: Institutional Buying Slowdown and Demand Structure Diversification Push Bitcoin into a New Equilibrium Zone
The core variable of Bitcoin comes from major changes in institutional behavior. The monthly purchases of Strategy have dropped sharply from the 2024 peak of 134,000 BTC to just 9,100 BTC, with only 135 BTC accumulated in December. CryptoQuant interprets this as early preparation for a multi-month downward cycle. Rthae sees this as a sign that the previously institution-driven demand model is fading, and the market must find new structural buyers.
Institutional contraction has not affected the Bitcoin price floor stability. Bitcoin just posted its strongest single-day increase since May, rising 5.81% in one day, with a buy ratio of 1.17—the highest of the entire cycle. The Coinbase Premium has returned to positive territory, indicating renewed domestic U.S. demand. Rthae notes that in past cycles, when spot institutional buying slowed but retail and multi-regional demand picked up, Bitcoin often transitioned into a new equilibrium phase.
Market structure is also showing positive signals. The daily chart of Bitcoin has formed a clear breakout pattern; if it stabilizes above $96,000, it could trigger an expansion to the $102,000–$107,000 liquidity zone. Rthae believes that the concentration of capital and historical order structures here jointly form upward momentum, and once a breakout occurs, the trend has room to extend.
Meanwhile, improved macro liquidity is providing new sources of demand. Quantitative tightening is nearing its end, the Fed is injecting liquidity back into the banking system, and reverse repo volume fluctuations show directional changes in the capital pool. Rthae states that among risk assets, Bitcoin most directly reflects expectations for the monetary environment, and the market is currently responding to lower funding costs.
In summary, the institution-led single-line buying structure is transitioning to a multi-channel demand structure. Rthae believes this shift will bring Bitcoin closer to a long-term equilibrium volatility path.
Rthae: Confirming the Next Market Pivot at the Intersection of Technical Scaling and Capital Inflows
The crypto market is simultaneously experiencing three forces: on-chain technical scaling, marginal macro liquidity recovery, and institutional behavior repricing. These forces are jointly shaping the next critical pivots for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Rthae believes that the Fusaka upgrade is the most decisive technical driver of this phase, improving network availability and providing developers with more structural space, thereby enhancing long-term network utility. On the macro side, rising rate cut probabilities and liquidity rebuilding are reducing market downside pressure and prompting a reassessment of risk budgets.
Institutional adjustments provide another signal. Whether it is the slowdown in corporate Bitcoin purchases or the 81% drop in ETH DAT Treasury buying, the unilateral accumulation model is giving way to a healthier, more diversified market structure. Rthae suggests that this distributed demand structure will enhance market resilience, making price action more reliant on real use cases and long-term value anchors.
Against this backdrop, asset pivots are becoming clearer: Ethereum depends on network activity revival driven by technical upgrades; Bitcoin relies on its role as a hedge and incremental demand amid liquidity shifts; and the overall market depends on marginal improvements in macro policy. Rthae asserts that when all three converge positively, the market is poised for a new round of price discovery.