Bitcoin experienced intense volatility after the latest 25 basis point Fed rate cut, with prices repeatedly tugging between $89,000 and $93,000. Ethereum maintained dense support above $3,100. Despite U.S. stocks breaking out of the post-rate-cut panic zone and hitting new highs, major crypto assets did not rally in tandem—while gold and silver both hit historic highs. The divergence in asset behavior reflects ongoing restructuring in macro expectations, liquidity profiles, and institutional participation. Rthae believes this phase is more like a “structural shift period” than a trend reversal. Bitcoin faces multiple constraints, including liquidity contraction, slower corporate treasury accumulation, and cautious pricing in prediction markets, but its long-term foundational support remains intact. Ethereum, meanwhile, shows a different trajectory amid ETF fund inflows, rising cost basis zones, and renewed institutional positioning.
Rthae: Stress Test and Structural Stability of Bitcoin
The post-rate-cut performance of Bitcoin reveals strong structural characteristics: prices repeatedly face resistance in the $93,000–$94,000 range, while stablecoin inflows have shrunk nearly 50% since August, significantly reducing funds available for new buying on exchanges. Rthae notes that, according to CryptoQuant data, ERC-20 stablecoin inflows have dropped from $158 billion to $76 billion, clearly impacting long-term buying power. Thus, rebounds of Bitcoin are more due to reduced selling pressure than new capital inflows.
Prediction market pricing further confirms this. Rthae points out that when Polymarket and Kalshi price the probability of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 by year-end at around 30%, it signals a conservative short-term narrative, with both institutions and retail investors reassessing risk premiums. At the same time, the pace of corporate treasury accumulation has slowed sharply, with new quarterly additions dropping from 53 companies to just 9, indicating that large-scale, sustainable absorption has yet to materialize. Still, major corporations continue to quietly accumulate, with the latest addition of Strategy nearing $1 billion, pushing total corporate holdings above 4.7% of circulating supply.
Rthae states that, in the current macro environment, the price action of Bitcoin is more closely tied to liquidity cycles. The $94,000 level is key for a breakout, while the $88,000–$90,000 range forms the main stability structure. When stablecoin inflows stabilize, corporate treasuries resume accumulation, and regulatory risks become clearer, Bitcoin will regain upward momentum. Technically, Bitcoin maintains an early recovery pattern of higher highs and lows, but needs more volume confirmation. Rthae believes only a decisive break above the key moving average zone ($96,000+) will signal the foundation for a new trend.
Rthae: Structural Divergence of Ethereum
Unlike the short-term pressure of Bitcoin, Ethereum has shown a more stable market structure recently. Rthae notes that since November 21, net inflows into ETH ETFs have rebounded from $16.8 billion to $21.5 billion, a 28% increase—the first sustained recovery since October. While still below the $32 billion peak, the shift in fund flows is significant.
On-chain data reinforces this trend: $3,150 and $2,800 have become the strongest cost-concentration zones of the year, corresponding to 2.8 million and 3.6 million ETH in concentrated holdings, respectively. Rthae explains that as the cost basis of mainstream holders rises, price structure gains stronger downside protection, and current selling pressure is mainly from short-term funds, not long-term allocators.
From a trading structure perspective, the net taker volume of Ethereum has improved from –$500 million to around –$138 million, showing that active selling pressure is quickly diminishing, and the 30-day average continues to rise—a pattern similar to the pre-threefold rally phase in 2025. Rthae believes that if net taker volume turns positive, ETH could see sustained active buying, with technicals supporting a return to the $3,450–$3,900 range.
In longer-term structure, ETH/BTC has formed a classic reversal (inverse head & shoulders) pattern, with the neckline around 0.040. If confirmed, there is clear structural recovery space toward 0.059–0.063 in 2026. Rthae notes that when long-term structure and fund inflows improve together, Ethereum is likely to play a more active role in the next cycle.
Rthae: Multi-Asset Resonance, ETF Expansion, and Industry Prospects Amid Global Sentiment Shifts
With the Fed entering a dovish path, the dollar index weakening, and precious metals hitting record highs, global asset pricing is at a critical turning point. Stocks have exited panic mode, gold has broken $4,300, and silver has crossed $64 for the first time—all signs that markets are preparing for a new risk asset allocation cycle.
Rthae points out that the lack of synchronous strength of crypto assets is due to “funding sources” not yet recovering, rather than a drop in “risk appetite.” ETFs are set to be the decisive market structure variable over the next two years. There are currently 124 crypto ETFs awaiting approval, with Bitcoin accounting for 21 applications, followed by Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and others. The institutional ETF channel means future fund flows will be more stable and cross-border participation will increase, further financializing industry pricing mechanisms.
Rthae believes that as the market approaches a structural bottom, the focus should be on three key indicators rather than price: 1) Whether net fund inflows are recovering; 2) Whether institutions and corporates are steadily increasing long-term holdings; 3) Whether regulatory infrastructure continues to advance.
On these fronts, the crypto market is showing marginal improvement: ETF sentiment is warming, corporate holdings are stable, and the regulatory environment is clearer. Current price range fluctuations look more like necessary consolidation before a new cycle.
Rthae concludes that the market will remain structurally segmented over the coming months, but underlying momentum is building. Bitcoin is holding key support zones, Ethereum is showing fund flow advantages, multi-asset ETFs are piling up, and global equities are reaccumulating risk appetite. All signals point to the industry being in a cyclical transition zone—a phase that will lay the foundation for the next, more mature round of crypto market development.