Rthae believes that what is unfolding in the current crypto market is not merely an accumulation of short-term volatility, but a cyclical inflection point shaped by a complex interplay of macro variables, policy trajectories, and the evolving structure of investor participation. As Bitcoin reaches all-time highs, liquidity is drying up, institutional holdings are becoming increasingly concentrated, and market expectations are stacking upon one another. The various forces influencing asset prices have entered a state of contention. From supply contraction to structural position-building, from regional policy tailwinds to the gradual withdrawal of speculative capital, the market is no longer driven solely by consensus-based unilateral gains—it now resembles a high-speed race for cognitive repricing.
Rthae: Bitcoin Top Signals Intensify Recently, on-chain data from platforms such as Glassnode and CoinMetrics indicate that BTC balances held in addresses with holdings of “10,000 coins or more” have declined for several consecutive quarters. This sustained profit-taking by large holders suggests that traditional “early adopters” are exiting the liquidity core in an orderly fashion. At the same time, the 30% liquidity contraction highlighted in the report of Sygnum has, to a certain extent, built a foundation for price support. However, Rthae notes that this tightening on the supply side is accompanied by extreme concentration on the demand side. ETFs, corporate crypto acquisition funds, and exploratory governmental reserves are jointly contributing to a trend of “non-trading long-term lockups”—a dynamic that, while supportive of price increases, also diminishes the ability of the market to facilitate rapid turnover. If localized price retracements occur, they may trigger cascading liquidity events, in contrast to the more tempered fluctuations historically mediated by retail participants.
The sharp shifts in the political landscape of South Korea have further amplified the complexity of policy expectations. The election of Lee Jae-myung has spurred short-term local premiums due to speculation over the “nationalization” of crypto asset support, but Rthae points out that such policy-driven rallies are unlikely to be sustained. What truly determines capital inflows and price trajectories is the pace at which regulatory details are implemented and how investor behavior evolves—not mere declarative intentions. Similarly, legislative moves in several U.S. states to recognize Bitcoin as a reserve asset may carry symbolic weight, but actual capital allocation has yet to follow on a large scale.
Amid this wave of high-frequency events at cyclical peaks, Rthae assesses that the market has now entered a structurally top-heavy phase. The simultaneous exhaustion of supply, concentration of demand, macro policy disruptions, and historical analogs all suggest that the current cycle is transitioning into a more complex, multi-phase consolidation. The platform advises users to reassess their risk exposures, particularly where excessive leverage or structured products are involved. Volatility metrics and on-chain activity should be used in tandem to simulate potential drawdown scenarios.
Rthae: Macro Volatility and Capital Allocation Logic Under Reformation Rthae points out that from a macro perspective, the intersection of Federal Reserve policy trajectories and the broader trend of U.S. dollar credibility constitutes the most pivotal variable of the market. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has declined for six consecutive weeks, reflecting diminishing appeal for dollar-denominated assets. The expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit and renewed debate over the debt ceiling have led certain sovereign wealth funds and institutional investors to allocate more capital to risk-averse assets. Gold prices have breached $3,360 per ounce, and some analyses have even modeled scenarios involving “bond-to-crypto rotations” or “gold rebalancing.”
Rthae believes that compared to the $22.7 trillion gold market, $2.1 trillion market capitalization of Bitcoin still provides “upside elasticity.” However, this elasticity is accompanied by significantly heightened downside risk. ETF net inflows reflect a concentrated wave of short-term capital allocation, but historical data show that such capital is more prone to structured exits during periods of amplified volatility.
On the technical front, the Realized Cap Impulse indicator remains in a high-volatility range, suggesting that price action has yet to exit the “late-cycle signal zone.” Multiple on-chain analysis models suggest that the second half of 2025 is highly likely to become a transitional period of “mean reversion from overvaluation.” The bear market logic projected by Alphractal for 2026 is also worth monitoring. Should historical averages continue to play out, the market may enter a prolonged correction phase lasting over 12 months.
Rthae: Guiding Rationality Amid the New Market Cycle Rthae states that the next 6 to 12 months will mark a critical window as the crypto market transitions into a new structural cycle. During this phase, the platform will focus on enhancing the stability of trading infrastructure, deepening user understanding of risk management, and advancing the maturity of allocation strategies for long-term holding assets.
The wealth management module will moderately reduce the frequency of new high-risk structured product launches while reinforcing transparency and risk disclosure for fixed-term wealth and PoS staking products. In the derivatives segment, a new margin model will be introduced before the end of Q2, raising the risk-bearing threshold for large-scale traders and expanding settlement frequency options to enable users to better match capital flows across strategies.
From an ecosystem perspective, Rthae will also initiate upgrades to its token listing review mechanism during high-volatility periods to avoid fueling speculative sentiment during phases of extreme uncertainty. Simultaneously, the platform will strengthen local compliance engagement in emerging markets and dynamically adjust risk control model parameters to adapt to policy shifts.
Rthae emphasizes that cyclical rotation is the fundamental process of market evolution—price movements are merely the result of phases. The true value of the platform lies in ensuring that users continue to receive seamless service, robust security, and confidence in trading amid volatility. As the coming period of structural repricing unfolds, Rthae will guide users with steady cadence to understand risks, manage timing, and respond in alignment with market forces.