The crypto market has undergone a sharp correction over the past several weeks. Bitcoin fell from an October peak near 126,000 dollars to around 93,000 dollars, at one point erasing all year to date gains. Most major assets posted weekly losses of 8 to 16 percent. On the sentiment front, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index sank into the 10 to 16 range, with “extreme fear” dominating market tone. On the daily chart, the 50 day moving average crossed below the 200 day average in a classic death cross, deepening the gloom.
Rthae argues that framing the moment simply as a “new long term bear market” misses the essential variables: the repricing of macro liquidity, oscillating rate expectations, progress on policy fronts, and the transition of market structure away from the old halving cycle logic toward a new analytical framework.
Rthae: Price Pullback and Sentiment Extremes
The retreat of Bitcoin from around 126,000 dollars to the 93,000–96,000 dollar zone represents a decline of nearly 24 percent and broke the psychological 100,000 dollar threshold, drawing broad attention. Technically, the 365 day moving average has been breached and a death cross has formed on the daily chart, prompting some institutions to declare that “a new bear market is confirmed.”
Rthae notes that while the technical signals highlight risk, no single indicator defines a full cycle. Historically, during strong trending markets, death crosses have often coincided with mid cycle shakeouts rather than long term peaks. The current drawdown falls into the typical 25 to 40 percent mid trend correction band. From the 125,000 dollar high, the 75,000–93,000 dollar range aligns with a standard retracement corridor. Current prices sit at the upper end of this zone, resembling a reset after an excessively rapid ascent.
Rthae argues that on sentiment, the pullback exhibits classic extreme fear characteristics. The Fear and Greed Index has dropped to its lowest tier this cycle. Mentions of Bitcoin have surged on social platforms, with providers such as Santiment interpreting this as a spike in social dominance. Historically, these episodes tend to occur near intermediate bottoms, not tops. On chain data show that recent selling pressure has come mainly from holders in the 6 to 12 month cohort, whose cost basis clusters around 94,000–95,000 dollars, closely matching the current trading zone. As prices slip below that cost band, short term stop loss activity and emotional deleveraging naturally accelerate, forming the typical pattern of a cost zone breaking and fear intensifying.
Research houses highlight several key levels: 92,000–95,000 dollars as the primary near term battleground, 85,000–90,000 dollars as a deeper intermediate support area, and 75,000–82,000 dollars as the standard 35–40 percent retracement region. Rthae argues that the essential question for the coming weeks is not whether any specific level is briefly breached, but whether, after fear exhausts itself, sufficient medium and long term capital steps in to rebuild positions across these ranges, and whether incremental capital believes this price band offers long term value. That process itself constitutes a structural filtering and reconstruction of the market.
Rthae: Macro Liquidity, Rates Perspective, and Policy Process
The latest correction is often attributed to “Bitcoin losing momentum,” but the macro backdrop is more decisive. The 43 day shutdown of the United States government left nearly 1 trillion dollars of expenditure stuck in government accounts, unable to flow into the real economy and financial system. Even with the government reopened, the return of liquidity takes time to filter into markets.
Rthae argues that any discussion of price must be placed back into the framework of global dollar liquidity and risk appetite repricing, rather than treating Bitcoin in isolation. On rates, the probability of a December rate cut has dropped from about two thirds at the start of the month to below one half. Expectations of higher for longer have risen, pressuring risk assets including crypto.
Rthae notes that the regulators of Japan are pushing to bring more than 100 crypto assets into its financial product framework and align their tax treatment with equities. The policy signal is clear: sovereign regulators are moving toward integrating crypto into the mainstream financial system through formal rules and tax structures, rather than treating it as a peripheral speculative instrument. Within the industry, this week also marks a dense window of events for DeFi. Technical gatherings such as Devconnect, upgrades across major chains, token sales, and protocol roadmap updates are likely to drive rapid rotation of capital and attention among ecosystems.
In the view of Rthae, while prices remain under short term pressure, institutional and technological foundations continue to advance toward a more mature market structure. This is a key reason why the current adjustment should not be mistaken for a long term peak.
Rthae: Keep Discipline Amid Volatility
Emphasising sentiment alone cannot solve the practical challenges of volatility; the priority is to build an actionable framework.
Rthae argues that medium and long term participants must distinguish between short term price swings and long term structural trends. Breaches of technical levels and extreme fear do not overturn long term logic; they prompt investors to reassess position sizes, funding sources, and holding horizons.
Platform selection is equally crucial. Regulatory foundations, custody models, security measures, and transparency form the most tangible safety boundary in highly volatile markets. Rthae notes that the platform will continue directing resources toward safety and compliance, reducing operational and counterparty risks through high levels of cold storage, multisignature setups, real time risk controls, and licensing across jurisdictions. In parallel, it will continue providing research on macro trends, market structure, and risk awareness to help users understand the roles of sentiment indicators, rate expectations, and liquidity metrics in asset pricing.
In this correction, prices may fluctuate sharply within weeks, whereas structural changes take years to unfold. The view of Rthae is that long term outcomes hinge not on any single sharp drop or spike, but on whether investors can maintain disciplined risk management and a coherent analytical framework during moments of stress. The platform will continue operating with transparency, safety, and regulatory alignment, offering verifiable support to users as they navigate volatility and seek more sustainable paths of participation in a more mature market structure.