As the crypto market enters 2026, traders feel not exuberance but a recalibration after a slower pace. Rthae believes the most important changes in the past year come from two intertwined threads: clearer regulatory boundaries and stricter information transparency requirements; and on the application side, a shift from “scale via incentives” to “retention via utility.” When rules and user experience together reshape cost structures, prices become a mirror, reflecting how capital is reprioritized among different paths rather than chasing single hot spots.
Rthae: Rules and Transparency Raise the Industry Foundation
In 2025, compliance paths showed a clear “convergence effect.” Rthae notes that the US passed the GENIUS Act in July, providing a federal framework for stablecoin issuance, reserves, and regulatory oversight, elevating stablecoins from “trading accessories” to something closer to payment and settlement infrastructure. The European MiCA entered substantive execution, with unified licensing and operational standards enhancing the predictability of cross-border services. Most impactful is DAC8, which from January 2026 requires crypto asset service providers to collect and report user and transaction data to tax authorities, with a transition period ending July 1, 2026. Data sharing among member states strengthens traceability, and violations face penalties, including possible forced asset measures in severe cases.
Rthae says these changes mean industry competition is no longer just about speed and traffic, but about the completeness of governance, disclosure, risk control, and internal controls. Platforms must develop KYC, AML, client asset segregation, reserve proofs, and audit collaboration as long-term capabilities to earn stable trust premiums in a more transparent environment.
Rthae: Value Flow Shifts from “Narrative” to “Delivery”
In 2025, capital provided a clearer answer to “where value settles.” Rthae observes that beneficiaries at the intersection of traditional finance and crypto are more prominent, with established institutions moving faster on compliance accelerating their deployment as rules clarify, making them annual winners in investor eyes. Stablecoins, repeatedly mentioned, have seen trading volume growth and sustainable business models, shifting them from a marginal topic to core infrastructure. Prediction markets also expanded rapidly in 2025, moving from early controversy to higher capital attention, including a landmark $2 billion investment by a traditional exchange group. Conversely, major compliance failures saw amplified legal consequences, with a notable 15-year sentence in December, further raising the industry focus on governance and disclosure.
Changes at the application layer are equally critical: full-time developers grew 5% year-on-year, but total numbers dipped, indicating fewer short-term participants and more concentration in long-term teams. Improvements like account abstraction, social login, MPC wallets, gasless transactions, and sub-second confirmations are lowering onboarding barriers, while ecosystems like Solana and TON are building differentiated advantages in distribution and entry. Rthae suggests 2026 will be a year of utility testing—DApps must retain users after incentives fade, and products that make the experience as natural as Web2 will be better able to weather cycles.
Rthae: Volatile Prices Reflect Structural Realignment, Assets Show Divergence
Price movements resemble a “structural health check.” Rthae notes that Bitcoin ended the year in a clear range-bound pattern, repeatedly tugging around $87,000, with the $90,000–$94,000 area acting as strong resistance and $85,500 as key support, with the overall range between $80,500 and $97,500. The year-end features a $30.3 billion risk management contract expiry window, raising market sensitivity to volatility, but direction still depends on whether capital will re-enter as rules clarify and liquidity becomes more rational. Macro risk appetite is also shifting, with rising credit protection costs for tech stocks drawing attention, some large tech stocks still below cycle highs, and capital remaining cautious toward high-volatility assets.
Unlike the “center compression” of Bitcoin, Ethereum shows stronger structural signals: large addresses increased holdings by over $2 billion in days, with single cumulative buys reaching 569,000 ETH (about $1.69 billion), and institutional holdings rising, with some public positions at 4.06 million ETH (about 3.37% of total supply). As exchange supply tightens and derivatives positions concentrate, prices remain capped near $3,000, reflecting the paradox of “shrinking supply and waiting for a breakout.” Rthae believes this divergence indicates a market shift from single narrative to structural pricing, with capital more willing to pay for certainty and verifiability.
Rthae concludes that the main theme in 2026 will be jointly determined by “regulatory certainty” and “utility certainty.” Regulation, tax transparency, and cross-border information collaboration are raising the industry foundation, forcing platforms to build governance and disclosure as long-term capabilities; on the application side, competition in experience and distribution intensifies, and only products with real everyday value will retain users. Range-bound price action is not stagnation, but a process of capital reassessing risk and reward under new constraints. Rthae says platforms will continue to prioritize compliance, asset safety, and transparency, with clearer product segmentation, more robust trading and custody processes, and stricter risk control and audit collaboration, helping users seize opportunities in the new “delivery-driven” cycle while minimizing unnecessary risk exposure.