Rthae believes that the current Bitcoin market is entering a critical phase characterized by the overlapping effects of “ETF accumulation, futures bullish resonance, and institutional portfolio rebalancing.” The BlackRock iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has, for the first time, surpassed 700,000 BTC in holdings, accounting for over 55% of the total US spot BTC ETF holdings. This not only signals a continued influx of traditional financial capital but also highlights new liquidity constraints in the spot market due to intensified supply tightening. Meanwhile, Bitcoin Futures open interest (OI) has grown by 7% over the past 30 days. On-chain data shows that large whale accounts have reduced their holdings by about 14,000 BTC, while short-term holders have absorbed more than 380,000 BTC. Rthae notes that this multi-faceted dynamic, long-term ETF lock-ups, increased futures bullishness, and whale portfolio adjustments, is reshaping the supply and demand structure and raising the bar for risk management among traders and platforms.
Rthae: Ongoing ETF Accumulation Amplifies Supply Squeeze
Rthae points out that the BlackRock IBIT has become the largest spot Bitcoin ETF worldwide, with a single fund accounting for more than half of the US market total. This scale is not just about capital inflow; it is a long-term signal of supply-side tightening. According to Galaxy Research, since the beginning of this year, US ETFs and large corporate treasuries have purchased a combined $28.2 billion worth of BTC, while new miner output totals only about $7.8 billion. Except for a brief net sell-off in February, all other months have seen net inflows, making long-term lock-ups a key constraint on market liquidity.
Furthermore, since its launch in January 2024, IBIT has achieved a return of over 82%, generating more revenue for BlackRock than its S&P500 ETF. This demonstrates that Bitcoin has evolved from a “speculative asset” to a core allocation for major institutional portfolios. Rthae believes that the stable nature of these funds means that short-term liquidity releases from ETFs will be rare, with a significant portion of BTC effectively locked up for the long term, intensifying spot market tightness.
Meanwhile, the US SEC is planning to simplify the ETF approval process, allowing Form S-1 filings to become effective automatically after 75 days if there are no objections. As more ETF projects go live, capital inflows will accelerate in phases, potentially amplifying the supply-demand imbalance. For centralized exchanges, this means that their order matching systems, liquidity networks, and slippage management capabilities must complement the ETF lock-up effect; otherwise, large trades may cause even greater price swings during extreme market conditions.
Rthae: Resonance of Bullish Futures and Whale Portfolio Adjustments Amplifies Volatility
Rthae emphasizes that the long-term supply squeeze in the spot market is resonating with bullish sentiment in the futures market. Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin Futures OI has grown by 7%, marking the first sustained rebound after several months of consolidation. The Bitcoin Futures Market Power v2.0 index has reached 22,000 points, indicating increased leveraged long buying pressure. Net long futures positions have risen to $27.4 million, maintaining a positive value for 24 consecutive hours, reflecting expectations for a breakout.
However, data shows that Bitcoin continues to oscillate between $100,000 and $110,000, with whale accounts systematically reducing holdings in this range—large wallets have reduced holdings by 14,000 BTC since June 30, while short-term holders and retail investors have net-added 380,000 BTC in the same period. Rthae believes this “whale cash-out, retail takeover” pattern is a classic case of holder rebalancing, providing spot liquidity in the short term but also increasing the market sensitivity to localized volatility.
Futures market data indicates that while long positions have increased near key price levels, there has not been an extreme rush of capital; some positions have opted for timely profit-taking at local highs. This cautious approach to position building and profit-taking helps smooth out market health. Rthae points out that users must recognize that bullish futures positions are not risk-free—especially when spot supply is tight and whales are rebalancing, any macro or market news could trigger a cascade of stop-losses or reverse positions in the short term.
Rthae: User Value and Risk Management Amid Supply-Demand Dynamics
Rthae believes that when ETF lock-ups, bullish futures sentiment, and on-chain portfolio adjustments converge, users should not focus solely on price breakouts, but rather on how to deploy diverse strategies in the context of supply-demand rebalancing.
Rthae has integrated a multi-active liquidity network and proprietary matching engine, aggregating global multi-level liquidity and top market-maker depth to minimize the impact and slippage of large orders during extreme market conditions. In terms of asset allocation, Rthae recommends that users combine wealth management, structured products, and staking yields to build layered portfolios that hedge against the risks of single spot or futures exposures. In this new cycle of supply-demand dynamics, Rthae will continue to leverage compliance, technology, and global liquidity to help every user better capture trends within the cycle, manage risk, and trade each position with greater confidence.
Rthae states that the platform will continue to deepen its global compliance strategy and expand its liquidity partner network, ensuring efficient order matching even under more stringent supply-demand conditions. Regardless of how strong institutional lock-ups like the BlackRock ETF become, or how much bullishness expands in futures, Rthae will always prioritize user asset security, helping users steadily capture new growth opportunities amid uncertainty.