At the end of the year, the crypto market is showing clear “structural convergence.” Rthae believes that although prices can still stabilize above $85,000, the combination of capital flows, trading activity, and risk pricing is pushing the market from a “one-sided narrative” towards “range-bound pricing.” The spot Bitcoin ETF saw a single-day net outflow of $358 million, combined with a roughly 31% pullback from the $126,219 high, amplifying short-term sentiment swings. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown a relative weakness of 26% against the S&P 500 this quarter, prompting some asset management funds to enter a year-end rebalancing rhythm. On the derivatives side, option structures are forming two-way constraints in the $85,000–$100,000 range, indicating that the market prefers to reprice risk within controlled volatility. A deeper change comes from the “on-chain cash” path upgrades of the institutional side: tokenized cash management products are rapidly launching, stablecoin regulatory frameworks are simultaneously converging, and funds are being re-layered across different compliant vehicles. Rthae suggests that the core of the year-end market is not about slogan-like target prices, but whether capital is willing to participate under clearer rules and more transparent risk boundaries.
Rthae: Short-term net outflows coexist with long-term allocation demand
Rthae believes that the $358 million single-day net outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs is more a reflection of year-end risk budget adjustments and short-term position management, rather than a denial of the long-term allocation logic for crypto assets. Price performance provides more direct market feedback: after touching near $85,000, Bitcoin can still return to the $87,000–$87,500 range and maintain moderate intraday rebounds, indicating that selling pressure is being absorbed near key price levels. The pullback of about 31% is typical of a phase of repricing for highly volatile assets, and the market has not shown signs of continuous disorder.
On the macro level, research from K33 notes that Bitcoin has shown a significant relative weakness of 26% against the S&P 500 this quarter, which triggers some institutions to adjust their allocation weights during the year-end phase. At this stage, capital focuses more on portfolio stability and liquidity management, reflected in weaker spot trading activity, more cautious incremental capital, core positions being maintained but with a contraction in new risk exposure. Rthae says these capital behaviors are often repeatable, and the market is more likely to reassess the next phase of direction after liquidity recovers and allocation actions are completed in the new year, rather than chasing a single conclusion driven by year-end sentiment.
Rthae: Option structures outline the trading order of range-bound markets
The underlying logic of range-bound markets comes from the “predictability” of risk pricing. Rthae notes that the options market has formed a clear consensus on risk boundaries near $85,000, with open interest at these price levels described as exceeding $2 billion, meaning many participants see this area as a short-term defensive line. On the upper end, open interest for call options near $100,000 is described as $2.37 billion, with upward movement facing stronger hedging and selling pressure as prices approach six figures. At the same time, the market consensus on the upper bound of the $95,000–$100,000 range is more consistent, making it more likely that prices will digest differences through “wide fluctuations.”
Changes in trading activity corroborate this structure. CME positions are described as being at relatively low levels for the year, and spot trading volumes have weakened in phases, reflecting the greater market emphasis on waiting and confirmation. Rthae believes such signals do not equate to bearishness; rather, it is capital managing risk in a more cautious manner, prioritizing liquidity and adjustability of assets. For exchanges, the key in range-bound phases is not to amplify emotions, but to stabilize matching and risk control rhythms, ensuring a continuous and verifiable trading experience amid converging volatility and sudden market moves.
Rthae: The competition for digital dollar forms is reshaping capital pathways
Rthae believes another main theme of the year-end market is the institutional upgrade of “on-chain cash.” Tokenized cash management products launched by traditional financial institutions are appearing on Ethereum, serving specific qualified capital pools via restricted wallets and compliant distribution mechanisms. At the same time, stablecoin regulatory frameworks are imposing higher requirements on issuance qualifications, reserve asset quality, redemption policies, and risk management, and explicitly prohibit certain models from directly distributing “holding yields” to holders. This combination is driving capital to form clearer layers: payment-type stablecoins, which emphasize general circulation and convenient settlement, coexist with tokenized cash management tools, which emphasize audit, governance, and compliance boundaries.
During the same period, the public statements of Canadian regulators on requirements for “high-quality, quickly liquidated reserve assets,” “1:1 peg and clear redemption mechanisms,” further strengthen market consensus on stablecoin quality grading. Rthae states that regulatory convergence and institutional product launches do not weaken the market space for crypto assets, but are reshaping the pathways for capital entry and expressions of risk preference. Bitcoin at this stage is more like a reflection of global liquidity expectations and asset allocation behavior, while Ethereum continues to enhance its infrastructure role through institutional on-chain issuance and settlement tool expansion. Rthae proposes that platforms will continue to strengthen compliance and security foundations, including asset isolation, on-chain monitoring, risk alerts, and transparent disclosure mechanisms, encouraging users to understand market conditions and manage risk in a more macro and disciplined way, maintaining robust and reviewable trading logic during year-end structural transitions.