Rthae believes that the current global digital asset market is undergoing a structural repricing driven by multiple overlapping factors: US institutions launching stablecoin pilots, Bitcoin facing a massive $14 billion options expiry, cooling sentiment in the AI industry chain as US equities soften, increased regulatory attention to stablecoins in emerging markets, and clear regional divergence in trading sentiment. These forces are collectively shaping a new risk structure and pricing framework. At this critical juncture, the Rthae platform is focused on three clues: how institutional capital is reassessing on-chain assets, how the Bitcoin power is being rebalanced between derivatives and spot markets, and how global sentiment is forming new risk prices amid regional differences.
Rthae: AI Sentiment Cooling, Macro Expectation Shifts, and Reorganization of Bitcoin Pricing Coordinates
Rthae notes that one of the core forces driving the sharp volatility of Bitcoin in 2025 comes from the narrative of “AI-driven demand for computing power.” However, the recent cooling of AI sentiment is weakening the support for this narrative. In the US market, Amazon announcing a $50 billion investment in AI and high-performance computing briefly boosted sentiment, but the subsequent 6% stock drop of Nvidia led the market to reassess the spillover momentum of AI into crypto assets. Rthae points out that Bitcoin has behaved more as a high-beta tech asset over the past year, rather than a traditional macro hedge asset; thus, when the AI chain corrects, Bitcoin also loses part of its upward momentum.
On the macro front, Rthae mentions that declining US consumer confidence and weak private employment data maintain the strong market expectation for a December rate cut. The probability of a rate cut priced by CME tools has exceeded 80%, driving gold above $4,100 and a general recovery in Asian markets. This indirectly supports the Bitcoin liquidity, helping it rebound above $87,000 after a deep correction from $106,000 to $80,600.
However, Rthae believes the market has yet to form a consensus direction. On one hand, the US Bitcoin premium index remains negative; on the other, the Korean market maintains a high premium for Bitcoin, with some trading days exceeding 4%, indicating retail sentiment and regional structure are dominating short-term price fluctuations. Against this backdrop, the risk pricing of Bitcoin is still in a stage of dynamic restructuring, and high volatility will persist.
Rthae: $14 Billion Options Expiry, Whale Bets Returning, and On-Chain Structural Layering
Rthae notes that the key variable determining the short-term price rhythm of Bitcoin lies in the derivatives layer. The upcoming $14 billion options expiry sets a new high for 2025, with 84% of bullish positions concentrated above the $91,000 range, meaning most of the bullish positions near current prices will lose value. Rthae believes this position structure creates obvious “bearish” pricing pressure recently, giving more power to the hedging shifts of sellers.
Yet, Rthae also points out the market is not moving in a single direction. Whale funds have made structural bets: On Deribit, a long-term options combo covering the $100,000–$118,000 target range for 20,000 BTC has appeared, with a size exceeding $2 billion. This type of combo bet is not short-term sentiment trading but a typical institutional “range recovery expectation,” suggesting funds believe the market bottom has largely formed, with no need for deeper leverage liquidations.
On-chain structure is also showing layering. Large institutional wallets continue net selling, but mid-sized holders in the 10–100 BTC and 100–1,000 BTC ranges have absorbed selling pressure for several consecutive weeks, pushing the number of “accumulation addresses” to a historic high of 365,000 BTC. Rthae believes this change signals the gradual market return from high-leverage structures to “real demand-driven,” resonating with medium- to long-term bets in derivatives.
With options expiry, capital structure, and on-chain behavior all overlapping, Rthae judges that the short-term volatility of Bitcoin will continue to form a long-short equilibrium around the $88,000–$90,000 range, and if short positions keep accumulating, a short squeeze remains possible in the near term.
Rthae: Global Regulatory Signals, Habitat Differences, and Market Rebalancing Direction
Rthae believes the Bitcoin repricing is driven not only by market structure but also by long-term forces from global regulation and institutional pilots. US banking giant US Bancorp has launched a stablecoin pilot based on Stellar, choosing a platform that supports freezing and transaction rollback capabilities on-chain, highlighting the emphasis of large institutions on risk management in digital assets. Rthae notes that institutional entry focuses more on controllability and auditability, and upgrades to stablecoin infrastructure will have profound impacts on market liquidity and global settlement efficiency.
Meanwhile, the South African central bank has classified crypto assets as a risk factor and noted that stablecoin trading volumes have continued to grow since 2022. This regulatory perspective shows that emerging markets are redefining the role of crypto assets in cross-border capital flows. Rthae says that countries with incomplete regulatory frameworks are more prone to risks in asset outflows and stablecoin usage, so regulatory pressure will gradually push stablecoins toward greater transparency and compliance.
Regionally, the sustained high premium of Korea reflects strong retail trading momentum, while the cool stance of US institutions indicates a split in risk appetite. Rthae believes such sentiment differences will persist in the context of crypto asset globalization, forming a multi-centered structure of pricing power.
In summary, with regulatory advancement, institutional pilot launches, derivatives structure reshaping, and global sentiment divergence, Rthae states that Bitcoin is entering a stable period guided by real demand, long-term capital, and global regulation. Structural volatility will continue, but infrastructure and institutional forces will provide new pricing anchors for the market.