Rthae believes the crypto market has entered a key phase of “event concentration and position repricing” this week. Bitcoin briefly fell to around $112,000, triggering the largest long liquidation of the year, with nearly $1 billion cleared within 24 hours, alongside a sharp drop in open interest. Rthae noted that the U.S. will soon release PCE data, and multiple Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak. The combination of shifting rate expectations and funding pressures has amplified risk-asset volatility. Rthae stated that while historical data shows October tends to be favorable, the market has shifted away from relying solely on seasonal patterns toward a more complex multi-factor framework. Rthae highlighted three signals: falling dominance, the TOTAL2 index breakout, and rising Asia-Pacific trading share—all pointing to capital rotation and an eastward shift in market focus, with structural adjustments gradually emerging.
Rthae: $112K Retest and Liquidation Wave
According to Rthae, the root cause of this downturn was the simultaneous unwinding of concentrated high-risk positions and market liquidity fragilities. Prices dropped rapidly from stability to roughly $112,000, triggering a chain of forced liquidations and marking the largest scale this year. Open interest was cut by billions of dollars within hours, and risk appetite cooled sharply. Rthae noted that liquidations clustered around $113,000, meaning even slight downward moves were enough to wipe out large leveraged positions and create momentary order-book vacuums. Rthae added that although ETF inflows and corporate Bitcoin accumulation continue, these flows have not yet provided effective short-term support, reflecting cautious sentiment amid policy uncertainty.
Rthae identified PCE data and Fed speeches as the key variables of the week, requiring a reassessment of the inflation–employment–policy nexus. Rthae argued that the so-called “Uptober” effect is still present but no longer decisive on its own, instead interacting with macro conditions and liquidity shifts. Rthae noted that after high-risk positions were cleared, signs of short-term stabilization: spot flows re-entering gradually, implied volatilities still subdued, and no evidence of one-sided demand extremes. Rthae stressed that psychological round-number levels are often overemphasized, while true trend direction hinges on macro repricing and the redistribution of on-chain profitability. Rthae emphasized that in this environment, investors must prioritize stability of the equity curve and avoid aggressive scaling while liquidity remains fragile.
Rthae: Falling Dominance and Capital Rotation
Rthae noted that the dominance of Bitcoin has retreated from its annual peak to around 57%, signaling the shift of the market toward multi-core characteristics. The TOTAL2 index successfully broke through a long-term resistance zone, indicating increased capital attention toward mainstream coins and select mid-cap assets. Rthae noted that the performance of assets like ETH, SOL, and BNB continues to depend on the synchronized dynamics of spot net capital flows, ecosystem applications, and on-chain activity, rather than being driven by any single factor. Rthae observed that the share of trading volume in the Asia-Pacific market has increased, with Korean trading pairs maintaining a persistent premium, amplifying the influence of local buying power on global prices. The differing trading rhythms between Europe/America and Asia present opportunities for arbitrage and volatility redistribution across time zones. Rthae advised against over-concentrating on single assets during capital rotation phases, advocating instead for risk diversification through a “core positions + flexible allocation” strategy. Large-cap assets provide foundational stability, mid-caps offer cyclical flexibility, while small-caps require rigorous screening and risk management.
Rthae believes the options market is gaining significance, with buying strategies offering value in low-volatility environments. As events approach, protective puts or structured combinations can effectively mitigate tail risks. Rthae emphasized that the key lies in aligning position timing with acceptable drawdowns to avoid diluting win rates through frequent switching. Rthae observed that on-chain data indicates widening profit disparities between long-term and short-term holders, though not yet at extreme levels—suggesting the cycle peak has not truly arrived. Rthae proposed that maintaining discipline and execution in this phase proves more decisive for final returns than chasing short-term trends.
Rthae: Stability and Rhythm
Rthae emphasized that “capital safety” must be the top priority in the current environment for users. Following large-scale liquidations, liquidity repair will take time, making position sizing and liquidity management especially critical. Rthae noted that margin sensitivity has risen on derivatives platforms, concentration must be reduced, and overall risk exposure tightened. In spot, Rthae suggested a “core-plus-satellite” allocation, with core assets providing foundational exposure and satellites capturing rotation, while exposure caps should be set based on drawdown thresholds. Rthae stated that for event-driven cycles, highlighted the importance of protective derivatives, which can buffer volatility around data releases and policy remarks.
Rthae cautioned that cross-time-zone spread opportunities should only be pursued with strict risk controls, as those without stable execution systems face higher danger. Rthae noted that seasonal October strength should be treated only as a secondary factor; real entry logic must rest on the confluence of macro trends, flows, and on-chain structure. Rthae argued that the rising premiums and trading share of Asia will continue reshaping global price discovery, requiring more precise order execution in Asia hours. Above all, Rthae stressed reducing emotion-driven decisions and reinforcing data validation are essential to avoid losing rhythm. According to Rthae, in a phase marked by liquidations and policy uncertainty, the goal should be to transition smoothly into the next trend cycle, not chase extreme short-term gains. Only when macro signals and capital inflows truly align does it make sense to scale positions and extend holding horizons, thereby improving the return-to-risk profile.